Senate 2008: National Update

News just keeps getting better for the DSCC. They're crushing the NRSC in fundraising and each week brings more bad news for Republican incumbents.

Loaded Orygun reports embattled Oregon Senator Gordon Smith has posted a measly favorability rating of just 46%, his lowest in 28 months. Smith still leads in the likely Democratic nominee Jeff Merkley in head-to-head polling, but he's only picking up 38% of the vote and Merkley is only starting to build name recognition. Merkley, Speaker of the Oregon State House, made headlines this week by calling for the impeachment of Alberto Gonzales.

Things are looking highly competitive in Alaska. Ted Steven's legal problems have landed him in serious hot water. Even if he avoids prison he might still lose his seat. The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza crunches the numbers:

Most worrisome for Stevens' electoral prospects was that 47 percent said the following statement was true: "Ted Stevens has done some good things for Alaska but after forty years in Washington it's time for a change"; just 45 percent said that statement was false. Did we mention these are Republican primary voters?

In New Hampshire, incumbent Republican John Sununu is also in serious trouble. The latest CPR Race Ratings moved him from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican," and a poll pitting him against former New Hampshire governor Jeanne Shaheen shows Sununu down by a whopping 22%.

Maine promises an extremely competitive race as well. Charismatic and popular Congressman Tom Allen has gem of a credential: he voted against the war in 2002. Incumbent Susan Collins is calling for withdrawal but the Allen campaign will tell voters to look at her record, not her rhetoric.

Races in Colorado and Minnesota are going to be barn-burners. CPR has Colorado listed as a toss-up already, while Minnesota's Norm Coleman continues to pose with President Bush. Virginia and Nebraska could be highly competitive, too, if Republicans John Warner and Chuck Hagel retire.

Meanwhile, Democratic incumbents are strengthening their positions. Right now Louisiana is the only race Republicans have a legitimate shot at winning, and that's just because Democrat Mary Landrieu's New Orleans base is still languishing in Katrina-induce exile. Plus, Republicans still don't have a candidate. If South Dakota's Tim Johnson retires that the GOP might flip that seat, but that depends entirely on the Senator's health.

So, to recap: Republican incumbents are looking very weak in at least six states, and several more are teetering on the edge of disaster. Democrats have way more money, and the GOP's chance of taking even one blue seat is slim. It's a good time to be a Democrat.