College Students Might Pick the Next President

Barack Obama is going to blow away every candidate in the field this Spring--at least among college students. The Obama camp's student organization is second to none. On Facebook the Obama application has 21,000 subscribers and a group called One Million Strong For Barack boasts 320,000 members. Users have posted well over 7,000 comments on that page, suggesting a high level of enthusiasm.

Grassroots internet support is great, but the candidate's real strength among students shows in Iowa, the all-important lead hitter in the 2008 cycle. Over students from 80 high schools and colleges have founded "Students for Obama" groups, and the campaign has dedicated substantial energy to organizing them.

But a lot of that work might go to waste. The entire Presidential primary schedule is still up in the air, with Michigan trying to sneak up and grab Iowa and New Hampshire's thunder. Iowa is looking more and more like it's going to sneak it's caucus's into sometime in early January or even mid-December.

So what's this got to do with Students for Obama? They'll be on Winter break during the caucuses. If all the members of your well-managed organization are scattered around during the most crucial week of the campaign, they're not going to do you much good. A winter break caucus would hurt Obama's turnout directly by reducing the percentage of voting college students and indirectly by undermining his volunteer base.

Iowa sets a precedent for all the other nominating contests in the country. Remember when Howard Dean came in third in Iowa and then dropped off the map? Remember how John Kerry came out of nowhere? This year, it could all come down to Iowa again. And Iowa could come down to which date the caucus finally settles on.